With primary ballots mailed out and Election Day set for July 30th, political season is in full swing statewide. For members of the Arizona housing community – and everyone motivated to help solve the state’s housing supply crisis – voting should be essential. But down-ballot races often can be confusing. To help you make sense of who’s who in the primaries, the Arizona Multihousing Association has created its 2024 Primary AMA Voter Guide.
There are several primary races in Arizona that have become increasingly competitive in recent years, a few select races could significantly impact the legislative makeup of the Arizona House and Senate next session.
Below are the most competitive Senate primary races this cycle:
- LD1: GOP incumbent Ken Bennett faces former lawmaker and Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem and businessman Steve Zipperman. This district will likely remain under GOP control due to a substantial Republican voter registration advantage of +31.7%.
- LD2: GOP incumbent Shawnna Bolick is up against former Congressional candidate Josh Barnett. This is considered a swing district with the potential for a Democratic gain.
- LD7: GOP incumbent Wendy Rogers is competing against incumbent House member David Cook. Given the +24.9% Republican voter registration advantage, the district is expected to stay under GOP control.
- LD17: GOP incumbent Justine Wadsack faces former state Senator Vince Leach. This is seen as a swing district with a possible Democratic gain.
Below are the most competitive House primary races this cycle:
- LD7: GOP incumbent David Marshall faces Walt Blackman (former lawmaker), Steve Slaton (endorsed by Senator Wendy Rogers), John Fillmore (former lawmaker), Andrew Costanzo, and Barby Ingle. This district is expected to remain under GOP control.
- LD14: GOP incumbent Laurin Hendrix is up against Joel Coen (small business owner), Lalani Hunsaker, Andrew Jackson, and Khyl Powell (running on a slate with President Warren Petersen and incumbent Hendrix). With a +20.1% Republican voter registration advantage, the district is expected to stay under GOP control.
- LD16: GOP incumbent Teresa Martinez faces Chris Lopez (endorsed by Senator Shope and Representative Martinez), Gabriela Mercer, and Rob Hudelson (2022 candidate who lost to Democratic incumbent Keith Seaman). This is considered a swing district with the potential for a Republican gain.
- LD17: GOP incumbents Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr are up against Anna Orth (small business owner). This is considered a swing district with a possible Democratic gain.
- LD21: Democratic incumbent Consuelo Hernandez is competing against incumbents Stephanie Stahl Hamilton and lawyer Briana Ortega. With a +20% Democratic voter registration advantage, this district is likely to remain under Democratic control. Progressive Democrats are aiming to unseat the more moderate and business-friendly incumbent, Consuelo Hernandez, with candidate Briana Ortega.
To maintain control of the House, Republican lawmakers are eyeing potential gains in LD2, LD9, LD13, and LD16.
- LD2: Covering North Phoenix and Scottsdale, incumbent Republican Justin Wilmeth is running alongside newcomer Ari Bradshaw. With a +8.1% GOP advantage, Republicans see an opportunity here as incumbent House Democrat Judy Schwiebert is running for the state Senate. However, Democrat Stephanie Simacek, a well-known school board member, is the presumptive nominee and potentially can retain the Democratic occupied seat.
- LD9: Situated in Mesa, this district has a +2.5% Republican advantage, but independents form the majority voting bloc. Republicans aim to unseat Democratic incumbent Lorena Austin with nominees Kylie Barber and Mary Ann Mendoza. Incumbent Democrat Seth Blattman is likely to retain his seat.
- LD13: Located in Chandler, Republicans Julie Willoughby (incumbent) and Jeff Weninger (former lawmaker) are contesting both seats, one of which is held by outgoing Democrat Jennifer Pawlik. Democrats have nominated newcomer Brandy Reese in this +8.6% GOP district.
- LD16: Spanning parts of Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa counties, this district has a +3.5% GOP advantage. Incumbent Republican Teresa Martinez has endorsed Chris Lopez, aiming to defeat Democratic incumbent Keith Seaman. Other GOP nominees are Gabriela Mercer and Rob Hudelson, who lost to Seaman in the 2022 General Election. If Lopez wins the primary, Republicans are confident they can secure this seat.
In contrast, Democratic lawmakers are eyeing potential gains in LD4, LD17, and LD23.
- LD4: Situated in the Arcadia and Biltmore area of Phoenix, Democrats aim to unseat Republican incumbent Matt Gress. They have nominated Karen Gresham, a school board member, and Kelli Butler, a former lawmaker, to replace outgoing incumbent Laura Terech in this competitive district. The area remains split between a Republican and a Democratic lawmaker.
- LD17: In Pima County, Republicans Rachel Jones and Cory McGarr are competing against Anna Orth in a three-way primary. Democrats are supporting newcomer Kevin Volk, a small business owner, in hopes that he can defeat one of the Republicans in this +5.6% GOP district.
- LD23: In Yuma County, Democrats see incumbent Republican Michele Pena as vulnerable after her narrow win in 2022. The Democratic primary includes incumbent Mariana Sandoval, Matias Rosales, and James Holmes. With an almost +11% Democratic advantage in the district, pundits view this as a likely gain for Democrats.
To maintain control of the Senate, pundits have identified LD2, LD4, and LD17 as key seats that will determine the chamber’s makeup, which currently has a one-seat GOP advantage.
- LD2: Covering North Phoenix and Scottsdale, presumptive Democratic nominee Judy Schwiebert, an incumbent House member, will likely challenge Republican incumbent Shawnna Bolick in this competitive area. Bolick faces a primary challenger, Josh Barnett, but is expected to prevail. Given the district’s competitiveness, Schwiebert has positioned herself to appeal to independent and Republican split-ticket voters.
- LD4: Located in the Arcadia and Biltmore area of Phoenix, this district is competitive but has a +10.8% GOP advantage. Democratic incumbent Christine Marsh is likely to face Scottsdale School Board Member Carine Werner, who has been building a substantial campaign war chest. GOP lawmakers view Marsh as vulnerable and hope Werner will win in the general election.
- LD17: In Pima County, Republican incumbent Justine Wadsack faces a primary challenge from Vince Leach. If Wadsack wins the primary, Democrats see nominee John McLean as a potential gain. However, if Leach defeats Wadsack, the seat will likely remain under Republican control.
Mark your calendars for the following dates:
- Election Day for in-person voters, July 30
- Request your early ballot here (July 19 deadline)
- Return or drop off your early ballot by July 23
Please join us in voting – whomever you choose – on or before July 30, 2024. Thank you.
